Betting Odds Fluctuations
Appropriately, N.T.R.A. Commissioner Tim Smith has jumped into the Breeders' Cup Ultra Pick Six mess with full force and promised that his office will do everything in its power to make sure that wagering security procedures are airtight and that anyone making a bet in the future need not worry they'll fall victim to a scam. Officials of several major racetracks have done the same, saying they'll get to the bottom of the problems and fix them. There have been meetings, committees have been formed and audit firms are going to be brought in.
- Betting Odds Fluctuations Today
- Betting Odds Fluctuations Against
- Betting Odds Fluctuations Vs
- Betting Odds Fluctuations Calculator
Top Fluc is a racing bet type that guarantees the bettor the best fluctuation for their selected runner during official betting on the race. Top Fluc bets must be placed before the betting ring opens, usually 30 minutes before the race start. Top Fluc is also called the top fluctuation, Best Fluc or best fluctuation. According to BetOnline, U.S. Presidential election betting trends continue to fluctuate, but roughly 57% of bets have been on Biden to win and 43% on Trump at this point in the campaign. This is nearly a 180-degree flip from late-August when betting action backed the incumbent.
That's all well and fine, but someone in power should also head to the nearest racetrack, OTB or simulcast location and talk to the people in the trenches who are out there betting every day. They're the ones whose opinions matter most and they are the ones who must be convinced that the game is completely on the level. This is what they will tell you: Forget the Pick Six mess, it's the odds fluctuations after a race has begun that really tees them off. They don't understand it, they don't like it and they want it to stop.
Ever since simulcasting became the dominant form of wagering in this country, the odds at the time the horses leave the gate and the odds at the time the race is declared official can vary, sometimes dramatically. A horse can break from the gate at 5-1, hit the eighth-pole at 7-2 and then pay $8.20 when it's all said and done. And it seems to happen a disproportionate amount of times with horses who are in front or battling for the lead and are more likely to win than ones stuck in the back of the pack.
Is something funny going on and is someone or somebody betting after the races have begun? Let's hope not, but that's not the point. Whether anything untoward is happening or not, you can't blame people for being suspicious. It's a case of perception being reality.
'There's no question someone is betting after the bell goes off,' said Monmouth Park regular Mike Garafine. 'It doesn't happen so much at the bigger tracks, but I see it happen all the time at places like Philly Park and Laurel. I don't know if it's someone using a computer or what. I understand that some money comes in late, but why is it that the odds always seem to drop on a horse who gets out front?'
'I'm sure they've been betting after the races have started and have been doing it for years,' said another Monmouth patron, Bruce Fischbein. 'Why is it always a horse contending for the lead or on the lead that gets bet down? They can do amazing things with computers these days.'
Garafine and Fischbein are not your broken down horseplayers who think every race is fixed, every jockey is a thieving bum and the deck will forever be stacked against people like themselves. Rather, they are two of New Jersey's most respected horseplayers, the type who are smart, know the game inside and are out there most every day trying to knock out a few winners. If they think someone is past posting or betting after the races have begun (they do) and if there are tens of thousands of others out there who think like them (there are), then racing had better take this matter very seriously.
The explanation from the industry is that the late odds changes are an unfortunate part of life in the simulcasting era. Because so much money is coming in from so many different places, much of it at the last second, it takes a while to gather and compute the information. When the horses break from the gate, there are still tens of thousands of simulcast dollars filtering in from around the country that haven't yet been calculated.
The good news is that this is a problem that is easily fixable.All the tracks and tote operators and OTB's have do is to put a delay in place between the time the betting windows close and the race begins. The race cannot start until every dollar that has been bet has been accounted for and the absolute drop-dead final odds are in. It may take 90 seconds, two minutes, but it will be worth the wait.
The industry has been reluctant to do it because no one wants to shut out bettors. Obviously, the first few days would be chaotic and there will be some players who don't get their bets in in time, meaning handle will have been lost. But people will quickly adjust. Once everyone knows that they have to get their bets in on time and there will be a delay between the time the windows close and the race is run, the problems will have ended. That will mean more happy customers and fewer cynical customers. In the post Pick Six scandal-era, that's all that really matters.
Commercial content T&C apply Please play responsibly 18+
It’s not uncommon to see odds change before an event takes place. Sometimes these changes will be small, on other occasions they will be much more significant. There are a whole range of factors that can cause a change in odds.
Pre-Match betting and fluctuations
Before a match or competition starts, once the bookies have rolled out their initial odds it is unusual for these numbers to significantly change. These odds are primarily based on statistical analysis with a few other variants factored in, such as significant injuries or the amount wagered by users.
For example: if a bookmaker releases odds on a game and an unusually high amount of punters bet on a certain result it is not uncommon for the bookies to change their odds to limit potential damages.
However, before the game begins there are a number of key factors which explain why betting odds change:
Serious injuries
A few days before kick-off a team’s star player picks up a knock in training and are ruled out for the upcoming match. This will have a significant impact on the teams overall quality, and a negative effect on their morale.
After Messi sustained his long injury odds on Barcelona to win dropped slightly, due to the integral part Messi plays in their successes.
Key victories / defeats
If a team suffers a demoralising defeat in the week, perhaps in a European competitiion, this will damage their confidence and will reduce their likelihood of a victory, and vice versa.
However, there is the so called “European hangover” which is prevalent in football. Teams that have to travel frequently often find their domestic form suffers.
Fan trouble
In football, specifically in Latin America and Eastern Europe, key games such as derbies can see a lot of violence in the match build-up. It is not uncommon for team buses to be pelted with stones etc.
In Turkey – a famously hostile football environment – the Fenerbahce team bus was shot at by rival fans. Unsurprisingly the players were somewhat unsettled.
Freak occurrences
Similar to fan trouble, unusual events that take place shortly before a match can have an adverse effect on competitors. There have been incidents where matches have begun shortly after serious disasters or fan deaths, and this can impact a team.
Before Deportivo took on Atletico Madrid a fan was killed during a pre-match skirmish between support groups, which shocked players and fans alike.
Climate / Weather
If a set of particularly harsh weather conditions impacts a match it can have a dramatic impact on the outcome, particularly if the visiting team is unused to the harshness of the conditions.
European teams travelling to Russia in winter often have to contend with heavy snow and extreme cold, which they never experience domestically.
Travel
Visiting teams are always slightly on the back foot, and a particularly arduous trip can tip the odds more heavily in favour of the home side. There have been examples of team buses breaking down or crashing, leaving players to seek other transport, or even walk
A few seasons ago AS Monaco’s team bus broke down, forcing the players to hail a fleet of taxis to take them to the ground.
In-play / live betting
Betting Odds Fluctuations Today
Unlike pre-match fluctuations, which usually come as a surprise, the constant changes to the in-play odds are to be expected, and this is what makes this type of betting so appealing to punters.
Betting Odds Fluctuations Against
In-play revolves around reacting to the unfolding events, and is far less statistics based than the original odds rolled out by the bookies. Success with in-play betting requires a healthy dose of luck, but primarily a strong personal knowledge of the participants and the ability to read the game. Just because the favourite starts poorly it doesn’t mean you should pile all your money on the underdog.
For example: a football match is under way, the home team are strong favourites but concede an early goal. The odds quickly change to favour an away victory. However knowledgeable punters are aware that the home team have a habit of conceding early, and going on to win. This allows the astute punter to capitalise on the higher odds when they bet on a home victory.
Please note: due to the Interactive Gambling Act in Australia, any form of live betting cannot be conducted online.
How are odds calculated?
Learning how odds are calculated may seem confusing at first, but once it’s broken down the process is surprisingly easy.
Betting Odds Fluctuations Vs
Odds are essentially the probability of an outcome, the higher the odds the less likely something is to happen, and these predictions are largely based on statistical analysis. The analysis is done primarily by Risk Analysts, Traders and Odds Compilers who are employed by the bookies to set odds and assess the likelihood of every outcome of every match.
Betting Odds Fluctuations Calculator
A huge number of factors are taken into account, from team form to injuries, the bookies also have to factor in betting patterns. If a team like Manchester United are playing relegation candidates Sunderland the majority of punters will put their money on Man Utd, so the odds will be much lower to allow for this and limit the bookies outlay. After all, the bookmakers are there to make money.